May 23, 2024 | Hurricane | Risk Mitigation

2024 Hurricane Season Predictions

Early Predicitons

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) have released their outlooks for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Both forecasts predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. Given this prediction of a very active season, it is crucial for individuals and communities to begin early hurricane season preparations and stay informed about potential severe weather events.

NOAA Outlook

NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season indicates an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. The forecasters predict a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with 8 to 13 of them becoming hurricanes. Among the hurricanes, 4 to 7 are expected to be major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5).

CSU Outlook

The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team predicts a total of 23 named storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Of these, eleven storms are expected to become hurricanes, with five potentially reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. CSU also forecasts that the probabilities for landfall on the entire U.S. coastline, the Gulf Coast, and the Caribbean are all higher than the historical averages.

Factors Influencing the Season

Several factors contribute to the expected above-normal activity for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. These include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. These conditions are favorable for tropical storm formation and intensification.

With these predictions of above-normal hurricane activity for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, it is crucial for individuals and communities to be prepared and informed. By engaging in early hurricane preparation, staying updated with the latest forecasts, and following the guidance provided by local officials, we can better protect lives and property in the face of severe weather events.

Click here here to download the Hurricane Risk Mitigation Checklist for early preparation.