July 28, 2023 | Hurricane | Risk Mitigation
2023 Hurricane Season Predictions
Updated Forecast as of July 6th
Colorado State University has updated it’s 2023 hurricane forecast, predicting it will be an above-average hurricane season. This is due to extremely warm ocean temperatures. CSU is now predicting 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
May 25, 2023 Forecast
Coming off a particularly destructive 2022 hurricane season with hurricane Ian damage totaling over $112 billion in damages, making it the most destructive hurricane in Florida history, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University predict the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season to be average to slightly below average.
NOAA’s 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction expect a near-normal hurricane season with 12-17 named storms, with 5-7 of these becoming hurricanes, including 1-4 major hurricanes reaching category 3, 4, or 5. With improvements and advancements to NOAA’s modeling, they can deliver this forecast with a 70% confidence rating.
Colorado State University is also predicting an average to slightly below-average hurricane season with 13 named storms, 6 of which become hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. **Please see above for CSU’s updated predictions**
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season is believed to be less active due to a potential El Niño weather pattern to develop, warming the ocean’s surface and creating more atmospheric stability. The potential and strength of El Niño is still unknown, and if it does not develop, it can be a very active hurricane season.
Despite the credibility of these sources, hurricane season predictions are not always accurate and are merely an estimate we can use to prepare. As we saw with Hurricane Ian last year, it only takes one hurricane to make a devastating impact, so the importance of preparation is always there. Please visit our Hurricane Preparation blog for tips on how to stay safe during a hurricane.
Download our 2023 Hurricane Prediction Infographic.